The Inside Story of Hamaoka
-A Visit by Chubu Electric
to the Former Chairman of the Coordination Committee for Earthquake Prediction-
January
25, 2002, Shukan Asahi (Weekly Asahi)
“Hamaoka Nuclear Power
Plants are located in the center of a focal earthquake region. The siting of these power plants needs a
drastic review.” This warning by Dr. Kiyoo Mogi, a former professor of Tokyo
University, was carried in the editorial of the Shizuoka Shinbun, a local
newspaper in Shizuoka prefecture where Hamaoka nuclear power plants are
located. Dr. Mogi is an authority on
the seismology. He used to be the
chairman of Coordination Committee for Earthquake Prediction, a government-affiliated
body. Soon after the publication of his
article in the newspaper, Chubu Electric employees in charge of this issue
visited his house, anxious to provide their explanation to Dr. Mogi.
It was December 18, 2001,
when two employees from Chubu Electric visited Mr. Mogi’s house in Chiba
prefecture with a box of sweets. The two
men, offering their business cards showing the titles of manager and vice
manager in a section related to nuclear power plants construction, were about
to begin their explanation. Then Dr.
Mogi started out the conversation with a sarcastic tone. “You are the first people from Chubu Electric
I have ever met.”
Dr. Mogi is the person who
pointed out the danger of “ the Great Tokai Earthquake” in 1969, prior to
anybody else in Japan. Since then, he
had been the chairman for judging the prediction of the Tokai Earthquake and
also the chairman of the Coordination Committee for Earthquake Prediction for a
long time. He is known as an authority
among the Japanese seismic society.
However, Chubu Electric had never asked his opinion in regard to the
Hamaoka nuclear power plants that were built on top of the focal region.
The events that related came
about since the two accidents in Hamaoka 1, where a pipe was ruptured and then
a leakage was found in the pressure vessel.
Responding to these accidents, Dr. Mogi concluded that the whole nuclear
energy science is losing its reliability.
Consequently, he gave the following warnings in the editorial articles
in the Shizuoka Shimbun on Novermber 13 and December 19.
“One cannot say that the
siting of Hamaoka nuclear power plants cannot be justifiable.”
“Currently, the Tokai area
is considered to be the area of most concern for a future major earthquake by
researchers and political administrators, who have been taking various
countermeasures. However, in spite of this
fact, the Hamaoka nuclear power plants were built one after another as if such
a situation had not existed.”
“Japan’s safety myth in
regard to the earthquake-resistant structure was collapsed when the highways,
etc., were collapsed in the Great Hanshin Earthquake. It would be too late if a nuclear accident
took place due to a major earthquake. We
need a drastic review on this problem.”
He further commented, “I
have been concerned about the Hamaoka nuclear power plants but while I was the
chairman of the Society for Earthquake Prediction [he retired from his post in
April 2001], I was too busy with my work on prediction of the Tokai Earthquake
and ways to release information. I came
to think about the Hamaoka issue after the two accidents, and I consider this
issue as very serious. I believe that it
is my duty to continue to speak out on this problem.”
Soon after the second
editorial was issued, there was a call from Chubu Electric to Dr. Mogi, saying.
“Please let us explain.” The two
employees who visited Dr. Mogi made an explanation lasting nearly four hours
about the situation of investigating the cause of accidents and the
earthquake-resistance structure of Hamaoka 1.
Yet, Dr. Mogi made the following comment.
“In the end, I could not be
persuaded by them on the safety of Hamaoka nuclear power plants. There is not a single country in the world
where nuclear power plants were built on a place where an earthquake of
magnitude 7 or more could hit. Moreover,
the Hamaoka nuclear power plants are standing on top of the area where a
magnitude eight class earthquake could hit.
This is just extraordinary. When
I told this to Chubu Electric employees, they whined, ‘But we do not have any
good place for siting nuclear power plants.’
They were not giving me an explanation about the safety, but an
explanation to seek my understanding for their troubled situation. ”
Indeed, Chubu Electric had
gone through a tough time introducing new nuclear power plants. Ashihama nuclear power plants in Mie
prefecture, whose original plan came before Hamaoka, were consistently opposed
by the local people, and the plan was finally cancelled after 37 years with the
submission of the “total cancellation” by the Mie governor, Mr. Masakiyo
Kitagawa. In November last year, there
was a referendum on whether to establish a nuclear power plant in Miyama town
in Mie, but right before the referendum, the accidents happened in
Hamaoka. The opposition counted for more
than twice the support, which made an outstanding defeat for the promoters’
side.
Yet, Chubu Electric had
managed to build four nuclear power plants (currently, a fifth one is under
construction), all of which are standing on top of the focal region of the
Great Tokai Earthquake.
Meanwhile, there is a strong
assumption that the water leakage accident from Hamaoka 1 last year was caused
by the aging of the plant. Hamaoka 2,
which has the same design as Hamaoka 1, had its operation suspended. It is predicted that restarting the operation
of these two plans will be quite a time ahead (Translator’s Note: Recently,
Chubu Electric announced that the operation of Hamaoka 2 will resume in a few
months.)
Of course, the Hamaoka
nuclear power plants complied with the government’s Guidelines for Inspecting
the Standard of Earthquake Resistance Design, established in 1981. Hamaoka 1
and 2, which were built before the establishment of the guidelines were
examined in accordance with the them.
The Japanese government, as well as Chubu Electric, sought the experts’
opinions of experts in the fields of seismology and seismic engineering. Accordingly, Chubu Electric makes the
following assertion.
“Hamaoka nuclear power
plants have a design sufficient for earthquake resistance. Of course this is based on the assumption
that the Great Tokai Earthquake will occur.
We haven’t sought Dr. Mogi’s opinion, but we have complied with the
standard made by the top experts in their fields, so we are not concerned.”(Statement
made by Nuclear Control Division of Chubu Electric)
However, Dr. Mogi refuted
this as follows:
“You insist that Hamaoka can
resist the Great Tokai Earthquake, but the seismology in use when the guideline
was established is now obsolete, and the current seismology is much more
advanced. Not only that, but in many
cases, we cannot predict natural phenomena.
In particular, a magnitude 8 class earthquake occuring in Tokai area
would have many unknown aspects, and we suppose that there would be unexpected
earthquake motions and a high probability of crust deformation. We cannot accept any unexpected event in any
nuclear power plants, and these nuclear power plants are standing on the area
where a gigantic earthquake is expected to occur. Therefore, isn’t it a reasonable idea that we
stop these nuclear power plants?” In this
way, the authority of the seismology is saying that unexpected events can
happen.
When Dr. Mogi was talking
with the staff from Chubu Electric, he asked then the following question: “Why
didn’t you come to see me for my opinion even for a single time?” Then the following answer came back, “We do
not know what the situation was in those days, but the former staff in charge
of this issue might have thought that they would be rejected by you if they had
asked for your opinion in regard to the siting.”
When Dr. Mogi was the
chairman of the Communication for Earthquake Prediction Society, he negotiated
with the National Land Agency and the Meteorological Agency regarding the
warning issued by the government on prediction for the Tokai Earthquake,
insisting, “A warning of black or white is not sufficient. We also need precautionary information.” Then, in March 1996, he resigned as chairman
saying, “I cannot be confident on issuing a predicative information under the
current system,” expressing his critical view of the government system of
earthquake prediction.
Dr. Mogi is the type of
demanding scholar who cannot be welcomed by the government officials. Being aware of that himself, he continued, “If
they say that they didn’t ask for my opinions since I was likely to oppose the
plan, that means they only asked scholars who always say yes to the government,
doesn’t it? In regard to the Great Tokai
Earthquake, the earthquake prediction and the safety of Hamaoka nuclear power
plants are such grave issues, but seismologists never make any comment as if
they regard these issues as taboo.
However, when I talked to researchers in private, many did say, ‘What
Dr. Mogi says is all correct.’”
Yet Chubu Electric said, “We
will continue to ask Dr. Mogi to listen to our explanation until he understands
our points.”
It is not only Dr. Mogi who
insists on the dangers of the Hamaoka nuclear power plants in relation to the
Great Tokai Earthquake.
Professor Katsuhiko
Ishibashi at Kobe University (57), who is also a member of the “Special
Investigation Committee for the Tokai Earthquake” in the Conference for Central
Government’s Disaster Prevention, warned of “Genpatsu Shinsai-nuclear disaster
caused by earthquake in 1997. He pointed
out that nuclear power plants in Japan, particularly Hamaoka, would not
withstand gigantic earthquakes, which will result in a total catastrophe. After making his theory public, he visited
Hamaoka nuclear power plants and listened to the explanations made by Chubu
Electric, but Prof. Ishibashi said, “I have never been persuaded by Chubu
Electric.”
“Little by little, more scholars
of seismology, physics and other fields have come to point out the danger of
nuclear power plants in relation to earthquakes. Maybe it is a good idea to establish a group
such as, a ‘Society of Scholars Concerned about Genpatsu Shinsai,’ with Dr.
Mogi as our head.”
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